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Each scenario is a set of macro markers plus a playbook for what to do when a country starts matching it.
Banks are carrying more bad loans while the state runs a heavy deficit — the combination that has historically preceded frozen deposits, bank rescues, and withdrawal limits. These are warning signals, not a forecast: the outcome depends on cushions the data cannot see, from bank capital to outside support. The personal risk worth preparing for is temporarily losing access to your own money.
The money of the country you live in can lose a big part of its value within weeks — and everything you keep in it loses value too. If your salary or savings are in the local currency, this scenario hits you most directly.
The government's debt load, and what lenders charge it to borrow, are in the range that has historically preceded debt trouble — which governments handle by raising taxes, cutting spending, or letting inflation run, and each of those reaches your income and savings. How much debt is too much depends on who owes it: a state borrowing in a currency it issues itself can carry far more than one borrowing in someone else's, so the two cases are read against different lines here. These are signals, not a forecast — a country can sit in this range for years.
World markets are in a broad sell-off: share prices sit below their long-term trend, the "fear index" is elevated, and money is fleeing into the US dollar. This is not about one country — it is the weather in the whole financial system, and it usually reaches jobs, prices, and savings everywhere.
Prices rise fast and keep rising, so the money in your account buys less every month. If your salary and savings are in the local currency, you get poorer even without losing a single coin.
The economy is shrinking: companies sell less, cut costs, and lay people off. The main personal risk is losing your income for a while, so the goal is to be able to live without it.