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Debt crisis
A heavy public debt burden raises the risk of default and harsh fiscal consolidation.
Playbook
Watch government bond yields, avoid concentration in local government debt, keep a liquid reserve.
Recommendations
Check the share of government bonds in your portfolio
Reduce it when yields are rising.
Markers
The macro conditions that define this scenario. A country's score is the weighted share of markers currently met.
| Indicator | Condition | Periods | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central government debt to GDP | gt 90.0000 % | 2 | 2.00 |
| Real interest rate | gt 5.0000 % | 1 | 1.00 |