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The government's debt load, and what lenders charge it to borrow, are in the range that has historically preceded debt trouble — which governments handle by raising taxes, cutting spending, or letting inflation run, and each of those reaches your income and savings. How much debt is too much depends on who owes it: a state borrowing in a currency it issues itself can carry far more than one borrowing in someone else's, so the two cases are read against different lines here. These are signals, not a forecast — a country can sit in this range for years.
Time to act once this fires: 2-4 months
Check whether your savings include local government bonds (papers the state sells to borrow money). Trim that share while markets are calm. Keep a reserve you can withdraw within a day. Follow the news: words like "restructuring" or "IMF programme" mean the risk is rising.
Check how much of your money sits in local government bonds
Government bonds are papers the state sells to borrow money; if the state can't pay, their price drops or payments get frozen. Open your broker or pension app and search your holdings for the country's name or the words "government" and "treasury" — popular "conservative" funds are often full of them. If the share is large, reduce it while prices are still normal.
Keep a reserve you can reach within a day
In a debt crisis, governments sometimes freeze deposits or limit withdrawals to stop money leaving the banks. Keep one to two months of expenses where you can get them within a day: on a current account — ideally partly with a bank headquartered abroad — plus a little cash at home.
The macro conditions that define this scenario. Because some markers apply only to certain countries, how much each one adds to a score depends on the country — a country's own page shows its exact split. Weighting is relative: ×2 counts twice as much as ×1.
| Indicator | Alarm line | Weighting |
|---|---|---|
| General government gross debt to GDP (IMF WEO)only for 17 countries | above 90%, for 2 periods in a row | ×2 |
| General government gross debt to GDP (IMF WEO)only for 10 countries | above 130%, for 2 periods in a row | ×2 |
| Real interest rateonly for 6 countries | above 5% | ×1 |
| Real interest rate (10-year yield minus HICP inflation)only for 9 countries | above 5% | ×1 |
| Real policy rate (policy rate minus CPI inflation)only for 6 countries | above 5% | ×1 |
| Real interest rate (10-year yield minus CPI inflation)only for USA | above 5% | ×1 |
| Real interest rate (10-year yield minus CPI inflation)only for ISR, GBR | above 5% | ×1 |
| 10-year government bond yieldonly for 9 countries | above 7%, for 2 periods in a row | ×2 |
| General government net lending/borrowing to GDP (IMF WEO) | below -6%, for 2 periods in a row | ×1 |
Markers tagged “only for” use a data source that exists for those countries alone — every other country's score is computed without them, so they never dilute or affect anyone else.