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Recession risk
The economy is contracting: falling GDP, with high unemployment compounding the downturn.
Playbook
Build up a liquidity cushion, reduce leverage.
Recommendations
A cushion for 6+ months
Target a reserve of at least six months of expenses.
Markers
The macro conditions that define this scenario. A country's score is the weighted share of markers currently met.
| Indicator | Condition | Periods | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth (annual) | lt 0.0000 % | 1 | 2.00 |
| Unemployment (% of labor force) | gt 10.0000 % | 2 | 1.00 |